Oscar Pick Generator v. 2.005

Ok, here's the end-all, be-all of Oscar picks. Everyone else is wrong, and I'm right. You heard me.

Anyway, I have no pick for Animated Short Film, Live Action Short Film, Documentary Short Subject or Foreign Language Film, because I haven't seen any of the nominees in those categories. Terrible, right? Well, that's Milwaukee for you. I am shocked and awed that we still don't have The Sea Inside. Grumble.

Here's how this is gonna work: I'm going to list all the nominees, and the one's I've seen will be highlighted in green, the ones I haven't seen will be highlighted in red. Yes, I know I can't 100% accurately judge the category without having seen each one, but what can I do? Sorry. Here we go:

Sound
The Aviator
The Incredibles
The Polar Express
Ray
Spider-Man 2 should win and will win

Putting together all the action effects including all the stuff with Doc Ock's tentacles was very impressive, although The Aviator or The Incredibles did some of the same.

Sound Editing
The Incredibles should win and will win
The Polar Express
Spider-Man 2

This pick is purely to split the sound awards. Either one could pick up both.

Cinematography
The Aviator
House of Flying Daggers should win
The Passion of the Christ will win
The Phantom of the Opera
A Very Long Engagement

Hollywood is bound to throw something at Mel's snuff film, so Cinematography seems like a good bet. It's not a bad choice, I just would rank it behind both House of Flying Daggers and A Very Long Engagement.

Editing
The Aviator
Collateral should win
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby will win
Ray

Million Dollar Baby has kinda developed into the Oscar frontrunner, almost by default, and the boxing scenes are highly kinetic, so I think it'll win. Collateral was dynamic throughout, though, and more creative.

Visual Effects
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
I, Robot
Spider-Man 2 should win and will win

While each film made good use of the computers and the rendering and whatnot, Spider-Man 2 accomplished the most by placing the fantastic into the real.

Art Direction
The Aviator will win
Finding Neverland
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events should win
The Passion of the Christ
The Village

I don't think the Academy will take a "kid's" movie seriously, so I think my favorite has little chance. I'm going with The Aviator, but Passion could take this category as well.

Costume Design
The Aviator will win
Finding Neverland
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events should win
Ray
Troy

See Art Direction.

Makeup
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
The Passion of the Christ should win and will win
The Sea Inside

Ah, now we get to one I missed. While either Events or Passion would be a good choice, I believe the intense realism of J.C.'s scourging will win the gold. It's what he would have wanted.

Original Song
"Accidentally in Love", Shrek 2 should win
"Al Otro Lado Del Rio", The Motorcycle Diaries
"Believe", The Polar Express
"Learn to be Lonely", The Phantom of the Opera will win
"Look to Your Path", The Chorus

This one's really hard to predict. Accidentally in Love is a great song, that fit perfectly into Shrek 2, but will voters go for a upbeat rock song? I think they'll reward Sir Andrew, even though the song was tacked on to receive a nomination. I hate that. And mark my words, if that crappy ass Polar Express song wins, I will jump out a window. Or several.

Original Score
Finding Neverland
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban should win and will win
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
The Passion of the Christ
The Village

Another tough pick, but I think John Williams will pull it off for Harry Potter. I really do think it's an open field, though, except for The Village.

Documentary Feature
Born into Brothels
The Story of the Weeping Camel
Super Size Me should win and will win
Tupac: Resurrection
Twist of Faith

Well, I've only seen two of these, but Super Size Me is the clear favorite. It's a popular doc, which is rare, and it has a very pointed message that I think most of Hollywood gets. I love Morgan Spurlock, and I really hope he can follow this win with continued success.

Animated Feature
The Incredibles should win and will win
Shark Tale
Shrek 2

The Incredibles has gotta win this, for my sanity to remain intact. Shrek 2 was good, but it was more of the same. The Incredibles has reinvented the computer animation genre, by making it appealing to adults. Heaven forbid! Yeah, it's a Disney flick, and yeah it's kiddie at times, but it also poignant and explores the mid-life crisis almost as well as Sideways.

Screenplay (Original)
The Aviator, John Logan
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Charlie Kaufman should win and will win
Hotel Rwanda, Kier Pearson and Terry George
The Incredibles, Brad Bird
Vera Drake, Mike Leigh

Maybe the most overlooked film of the year, due to it's early release date, Eternal Sunshine should take home this consolation prize, lacking a Best Director or Best Picture nom. Charlie Kaufman is a probably the one screenwriter in Hollywood where I will see anything with his name on it, no questions asked. After Jersey Girl, I can't say that for Kevin Smith. And while I appreciate that The Incredibles got a nom here, its not a contender.

Screenplay (Adapted)
Before Sunset, Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy and Ethan Hawke
Finding Neverland, David Magee
Million Dollar Baby, Paul Haggis
The Motorcycle Diaries, Jose Rivera
Sideways, Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor should win and will win

I'm ashamed to admit this, but I'm still not sure what Before Sunset was adapted from. Was it a play or a book? I'm so confused. Anyway, this category is a toss-up between Million Dollar Baby and Sideways, and I'm hoping the latter wins out. Sideways features some of the most intelligent dialogue in a film this year, and Baby does veer a bit into melodrama territory.

Supporting Actor
Alan Alda, The Aviator
Thomas Haden Church, Sideways
Jamie Foxx, Collateral
Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby will win
Clive Owen, Closer should win

This category is hard for me to accept, since Church and Owen both turned in terrific performances, but I don't expect either to win. Morgan Freeman is the frontrunner, although in my review of Million Dollar Baby, I point out that he is playing the same character over and over again. That gets him an Oscar? If both he and Eastwood win the acting awards, I'll flip out, because they took NO chances. None.

Supporting Actress
Virginia Madsen, Sideways will win
Sophie Okenedo, Hotel Rwanda
Natalie Portman, Closer should win
Laura Linney, Kinsey
Cate Blanchett, The Aviator

While Portman will get many more chances in her still-young career, Madsen has come out of nowhere to turn in one of the best performances of the year in Sideways. And while all the nominees were good, she is the only one to really affect me emotionally. Natalie should get some sort of hotness award, though. Perhaps Tim could be the "presenter". By the way, check out his Oscar picks here.

Actor
Jamie Foxx, Ray should win and will win
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda
Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland

In a year with no clear frontrunner, this is the most certain pick I have: Jamie Foxx for Best Actor. Go ahead and print up the nameplate for the statue, it's a done deal.

Actress
Annette Bening, Being Julia
Catalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace
Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake
Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby will win
Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind should win

Another category where I missed a couple, but I'm pretty sure of Hilary Swank's win. Annette Bening won the Golden Globe, but so did Swank, and drama trumps comedy in these situations. Any of you who know me know I have a soft spot for anything Kate Winslet does, but my vote is for her and for Eternal Sunshine, so that it wins something, anything.

Director
Taylor Hackford, Ray
Martin Scorcese, The Aviator should win
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby will win
Alexander Payne, Sideways
Mike Leigh, Vera Drake

For the love of all that is holy, will someone give Scorcese an Oscar already? I cannot accept that he doesn't have one, and while I might not like The Aviator as much as Gangs of New York (minus Cameron Diaz), it is certainly good enough to give Marty the win. I'm begging. Million Dollar Baby, though, will probably win, as it is pretty good, and I think the Academy wants to apologize for steamrolling Mystic River with Return of the King. So, yeah, while this is the award I'm most anticipating, I don't think Scorcese will get it. If he does, I'll do a little jig.

Picture
Ray could be a surprise winner, after the Grammys

The Aviator takes 2nd place

Million Dollar Baby will win

Sideways should win

Finding Neverland will NOT win

The Best Picture category is anybody's game. I really have no idea who will win, except I know Finding Neverland will not. In the end, I think Million Dollar Baby will take it, although Sideways is my choice. It would be nice to have a comedy win, for a change, and I though Baby was kinda overrated. Sideways showed how a simple road trip story can take you on an emotional ride, and gave depth and heart to the idea of middle age. Beautiful. Unfortunately, I don't think it stands much of a chance against the one-two combo of Baby and Aviator, both bigger mainstream films. I'll be surprised if one of those two doesn't win, and if Finding Neverland wins, the apocalypse is nigh, and this may well be my last blog post. Fare thee well, citizens of earth!